Namibia’s latest offshore oil discoveries have positioned it as one of Africa’s most promising new energy frontiers. But as global investors celebrate the Orange Basin, many Kenyans are asking what happened to the billions of barrels of oil discovered in Turkana more than a decade ago, and if that dream could still become reality.
Kenya discovering commercially viable oil in Turkana in 2012 felt like the beginning of a new chapter. Headlines declared that Kenya had joined the league of oil-producing nations as politicians (expectedly) spoke about the economic transformation that lay ahead. All the while, residents of Turkana envisioned a future where the region’s vast natural wealth would finally translate into better infrastructure as well as schools, hospitals and jobs.
More than a decade later, that dream remains largely on hold.
Now, another African country is capturing the world’s attention for what could become one of the biggest oil success stories of the decade. Namibia, a nation better known for its breathtaking deserts and wildlife than fossil fuels, is emerging as a serious contender to become Africa’s next oil giant after a series of major offshore discoveries that continue to attract billions of dollars in investment from some of the world’s largest energy companies.
Namibia’s offshore discoveries are changing Africa’s energy map
Since 2022, Namibia’s Orange Basin has produced one significant discovery after another. Energy giants including TotalEnergies and Shell have all reported promising finds, with recent exploration continuing to strengthen confidence that the basin contains billions of barrels of recoverable oil.
Unlike many previous discoveries across Africa, Namibia’s finds have generated remarkable confidence among investors. Companies have continued drilling additional wells, expanding their exploration programmes and committing billions of dollars to further development.
Industry analysts believe the country could eventually become one of Africa’s largest oil producers if current projects reach commercial production as expected. TotalEnergies has already outlined plans targeting first oil around 2030, a timeline that many observers believe is ambitious but achievable given the pace of development.
For a country with a relatively small population, the economic implications are enormous. Oil revenues could reshape public finances, fund infrastructure projects, create thousands of jobs and significantly increase foreign investment. At the same time, economists continue to caution that resource wealth alone does not guarantee prosperity. Countries that fail to manage oil revenues effectively often struggle with corruption, inequality and overdependence on a single commodity – a phenomenon commonly known as the resource curse.
Let us talk about what economists call the “resource curse” or, more specifically in the case of petroleum, the “black gold curse.” Instead of becoming more prosperous, some resource rich nations have found themselves battling corruption, political instability, environmental degradation and widening inequality. Nigeria, Africa’s largest oil producer, has earned billions of dollars from crude exports over the decades, yet many oil producing communities in the Niger Delta continue to grapple with poverty, pollution and underdevelopment. Venezuela, once one of the world’s wealthiest countries in Latin America, saw its heavy dependence on oil contribute to a devastating economic collapse when prices fell and years of poor governance took their toll. Angola’s oil wealth has fueled rapid economic growth at times, but questions over how revenues have been managed have persisted alongside high levels of poverty. On the other hand, countries such as Norway have often been cited as examples of how transparent institutions, strong governance and prudent investment of oil revenues through sovereign wealth funds can help transform natural resources into long-term national prosperity. Namibia’s challenge, therefore, will not simply be extracting oil from beneath the Atlantic Ocean, but ensuring that its newfound wealth benefits generations to come rather than becoming another cautionary tale of the black gold curse.
What happened to Kenya’s oil?
Long before Namibia became the centre of global attention, Kenya had already made headlines. In 2012, commercially viable oil was discovered in the South Lokichar Basin in Turkana County. The discovery generated widespread excitement, with many believing Kenya was on the verge of becoming East Africa’s next major oil producer.
Expectations were high as communities anticipated employment opportunities and investors began exploring opportunities linked to the petroleum sector. Government officials spoke about future revenues that could finance development projects across the country.
Yet more than thirteen years later, commercial production has not begun.
Kenya successfully carried out an Early Oil Pilot Scheme that proved crude oil from Turkana could be transported to the Port of Mombasa and exported to international markets. However, the pilot project was never intended to be permanent. Full scale commercial production depended on much larger investments, including the construction of export infrastructure, financing agreements, regulatory approvals and agreement among project partners.
Those hurdles have proven far more difficult to overcome than many initially expected.
Changing global oil prices, investor caution, disagreements over development costs and delays surrounding critical infrastructure such as the proposed export pipeline have all slowed progress. The result is a project that still holds considerable potential but has yet to deliver the transformative economic impact many Kenyans envisioned over a decade ago.
Despite all that, comparing Kenya and Namibia would not be entirely straightforward.
Kenya’s oil reserves are located onshore in Turkana, while Namibia’s discoveries lie offshore beneath the Atlantic Ocean. The geology, extraction methods, financing requirements and commercial considerations are significantly different. Plus, Namibia has benefited from several advantages.
Its discoveries have come at a time when major international energy companies are actively seeking new large-scale reserves to replace ageing oil fields elsewhere in the world. The consistency of discoveries within the Orange Basin has also increased investor confidence, making it easier for companies to justify continued exploration and development.
Equally important, Namibia has worked to position itself as an attractive destination for international investment while simultaneously discussing frameworks aimed at ensuring future oil revenues benefit the country over the long term.
Kenya, by contrast, has spent years navigating commercial negotiations, infrastructure planning and changing market conditions that have repeatedly delayed the transition from discovery to production.
The lesson is bigger than oil
It would be easy to look at Namibia’s success and conclude that Kenya simply missed its opportunity, but that would be an oversimplification.
Oil discoveries are only the beginning of a much longer journey. Transforming underground resources into national prosperity requires stable policies, long-term investment, modern infrastructure, investor confidence, environmental safeguards and careful management of public expectations.
History offers countless examples of countries that discovered enormous natural wealth but struggled to translate it into meaningful economic progress. Others have used those same resources to fund education, healthcare, infrastructure and industrial development for generations.
The difference has rarely been the oil itself, but almost always about what happened after the discovery.
Could Turkana’s dream still become reality?
Despite years of delays, Kenya’s oil story is not over.
The South Lokichar project still contains significant petroleum resources, and renewed investor interest or improved commercial conditions could eventually revive large-scale development. As global energy markets continue to evolve, Kenya still has an opportunity to unlock the value of its discoveries – provided the remaining commercial and infrastructure challenges can be addressed.
Namibia’s progress should therefore not be viewed with envy but with curiosity. Its journey offers valuable lessons about attracting investment, maintaining momentum and turning geological discoveries into economic opportunities. If anything, Namibia’s rise serves as a reminder that discovering oil is only the first chapter.
For Kenya, the more important story has always been the one that comes next.
